PGA Genesis Invitational: Will X. Schauffele OR J. Day record a BOGEY or WORSE on the Par 4 2nd?

1:17 PM
Yes: Either bogey or worse on Hole 2
No: Neither bogey or worse on Hole 2 

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Inputs To Solve

2018 PGA Hole Statistics - The Genesis Invitational

##### User Estimates #####

p_bog2 = 110/(110+39+289)

print("The probability of a PLAYER recording a BOGEY or WORSE on hole 2 is ~%s" % round(p_bog2,3))

The probability of a PLAYER recording a BOGEY or WORSE on hole 2 is ~0.251     

## Inputs Defined in the Problem

golfers = 2

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Method to Solve

[1] Estimate the probability of a golfer scoring a BOGEY or WORSE on hole 2 (p_bog2)
[2] The probability that neither record a BOGEY or WORSE (p_noBOG) on Hole 2 is (1 minus the probability of BOGEY on HOLE 2) ^ (the number of golfers)

## [1]

round(p_bog2,3)

0.251

## [2]

p_noBOG = (1-p_bog2)**(golfers)

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Solution

print("The probability that neither X. Schauffele OR J. Day record a BOGEY or WORSE on the Par 4 2nd is ~%s" % round(p_noBOG,3))

The probability that neither X. Schauffele OR J. Day record a BOGEY or WORSE on the Par 4 2nd is ~0.561     

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Info

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import sys
print(sys.version)

3.6.5 |Anaconda, Inc.| (default, Mar 29 2018, 13:32:41) [MSC v.1900 64 bit (AMD64)]

Posted on 2/13/2020