PGA Genesis Invitational - 2nd Rd: Which player will be FIRST to BIRDIE a HOLE? (See Status Alert)

10:16 AM
Tiger Woods (USA) or First birdie for both is the same hole
Justin Thomas (USA)

Inputs Needed To Solve

2020 Riviera Country Club Course Stats

##### User Estimates #####

p_bird = [35, 45, 4, 14, 9, 6, 15, 28, 15]
p_bird = [x / (7+63+45+5) for x in p_bird]

count = 1
for p in p_bird:
    print("The probability that a golfer BIRDIES hole " + str(count) + " is %s" % round(p,3))
    count +=1

The probability that a golfer BIRDIES hole 10 is 0.292
The probability that a golfer BIRDIES hole 11 is 0.375
The probability that a golfer BIRDIES hole 12 is 0.033
The probability that a golfer BIRDIES hole 13 is 0.117
The probability that a golfer BIRDIES hole 14 is 0.075
The probability that a golfer BIRDIES hole 15 is 0.05
The probability that a golfer BIRDIES hole 16 is 0.125
The probability that a golfer BIRDIES hole 17 is 0.235
The probability that a golfer BIRDIES hole 18 is 0.125

Method To Solve

[1] Use Monte Carlo Simulation and simulate 9999 match plays between Tiger Woods and Justin Thomas amd record who BIRDIES a hole first.
[2] The ratio of Simulated match plays where Tiger Woods BIRDIES before or ties Justin Thomas is an estimate of the probability of Tiger Woods recording a BIRDIE before or on the same hole as Justin Thomas (p_tw)

import numpy as np

iterations = 9999
tw_1st_orTie = 0

for i in range(iterations):
    for hole in p_bird:
        #simulate birdie or no birdie for each player on hole[x]
        tw = int(np.random.choice([1,0],1,p=[hole,1-hole]))
        jt = int(np.random.choice([1,0],1,p=[hole,1-hole]))
        
        if tw == 1 and jt == 1:
            tw_1st_orTie += 1 #both birdie
            break
        if tw == 1 and jt == 0:
            tw_1st_orTie += 1 #only tw birdie
            break
        if tw == 0 and jt == 1:
            break #only jt birdie
        
p_tw = tw_1st_orTie/iterations

Solution

print("The probability of Tiger Woods recording a BIRDIE before or on the same hole as Justin Thomas is ~%s" % round(p_tw,3))

The probability of Tiger Woods recording a BIRDIE before or on the same hole as Justin Thomas is ~0.565

Info

download md file
email: krellabsinc@gmail.com
twitter: @KRELLabs

import sys
print(sys.version)

3.6.5 |Anaconda, Inc.| (default, Mar 29 2018, 13:32:41) [MSC v.1900 64 bit (AMD64)]

Posted on 2/14/2020