MLB (Braves @ Mets): How many STRIKEOUTS will Jacob deGrom (NYM) record in the 1st Inning?

Inputs To Solve

##### User Estimates #####

deG_2019_KRate = 194/(155*3)
# Total Ks / Number of Outs Recorded

print("Jacob deGrom's 2019 K per Out rate is ~%s" % round(deG_2019_KRate,3))

Jacob deGrom's 2019 K per Out rate is ~0.417

## Inputs Defined in the Problem
Innings = 1
Ks = 1

Method to Solve

[1] Enumerate all the possible combinations of STRIKEOUTS vs NON STRIKEOUT OUTS recorded in 1 Inning (K) and their respective probabilities (probability)
[2] Sum the probabilities for all the combination’s outcomes where the total number of STRIKEOUTS is less than or equal to 1 (p_0or1).

## [1]

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd

# deGrom K / no K probability
p_K_deG = deG_2019_KRate
p_no_K_deG = 1 - p_K_deG
prob_deG = (p_K_deG,p_no_K_deG)
K_grid = (1,0)

# Enumerate all possible combinations of K / no K for 1 Innings 
y = np.array([(a,b,c) for a in K_grid for b in K_grid for c in K_grid])
K = pd.DataFrame(y)
K['total_Ks'] = K.sum(axis=1)

K.head()

	0	1	2	total_Ks
0	1	1	1	3
1	1	1	0	2
2	1	0	1	2
3	1	0	0	1
4	0	1	1	2

# Compute the probability of all possible combinations of K / no K for 1 Innings
x = np.array([(a,b,c) for a in prob_deG for b in prob_deG for c in prob_deG])
probability = pd.DataFrame(x)
probability['p'] = probability.product(axis=1)

probability.head()

	0	1	2	p
0	0.417204	0.417204	0.417204	0.072618
1	0.417204	0.417204	0.582796	0.101441
2	0.417204	0.582796	0.417204	0.101441
3	0.417204	0.582796	0.582796	0.141704
4	0.582796	0.417204	0.417204	0.101441

## [2]

p_0or1 = probability['p'][K['total_Ks']<=Ks].sum()

Solution

print("The probability Jacob deGrom records 0 or 1 STRIKEOUTS in the 1st Innings is ~%s" % round(p_0or1,3))

The probability Jacob deGrom records 0 or 1 STRIKEOUTS in the 1st Innings is ~0.623

Info

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import sys
print(sys.version)

3.6.5 |Anaconda, Inc.| (default, Mar 29 2018, 13:32:41) [MSC v.1900 64 bit (AMD64)]

Posted on 8/23/2019