English Premier League (Everton @ Aston Villa): When will the FIRST GOAL of the 1st HALF be SCORED?

3:00PM
24th Minute or Earlier
25th Minute or Later OR No Goal in 1st Half

Inputs To Solve

##### User Estimates #####

p_0goals = 4/18

print("The probability there are no 1st half Goals is %s" % round(p_0goals,3))

The probability there are no 1st half Goals is 0.222

## Inputs Defined in the Problem

minute = 25

[1] The probability of a goal being scored in the first 24th minute (p_24) compared to after is the ratio of time in the first interval compared to the second interval (based on Poisson assumptions) taking into consideration the odds of no goal.

## [1]

p_24 = (minute-1)/45*1-p_0goals

print("The probability the first goal is scored in the 24th Minute or earlier is ~%s" % round(p_24,3))

The probability the first goal is scored in the 24th Minute or earlier is ~0.311

import sys
print(sys.version)

3.6.5 |Anaconda, Inc.| (default, Mar 29 2018, 13:32:41) [MSC v.1900 64 bit (AMD64)]

Posted on 8/23/2019