Women’s World Cup - Quarterfinals (Norway v. England): How many GOALS will be SCORED in the 1st Half?

Inputs Needed To Solve

##### User Estimates #####
expected_total_Goals = 2.75

## Inputs Defined in the Problem
Goals = 1

Method to Solve

Use Poisson Distribution to estimate the probability of exactly 1 GOAL being SCORED in the 1st Half

lambda_ = expected_total_Goals / 2

import math

p = math.exp(-lambda_)*(lambda_**Goals)/(math.factorial(Goals))

print("The probability of k events occurring in an Poisson interval = e^(-lambda) * ((lambda^k)/k!)")
print('where k = 0 and lambda = %s' % round(lambda_,3))
print('')
print("p = e^(-%s)*(%s^%s)/%s!" % (round(lambda_,3),round(lambda_,3),Goals,Goals))

The probability of k events occurring in an Poisson interval = e^(-lambda) * ((lambda^k)/k!)
where k = 0 and lambda = 1.375

p = e^(-1.375)*(1.375^1)/1!

Solution

print("The probability that one GOAL is scored in the 1st HALF is %s" % round(p,3))

The probability that one GOAL is scored in the 1st HALF is 0.348

Posted on 6/27/2019