Women’s World Cup 2019 - Semifinals (USA v. England): Which TEAM will TAKE MORE CORNER KICKS in the 2nd Half?

4:04 PM FOX
United States More 2nd Half Corners
England More 2nd Half Corners or Tie

Inputs To Solve

Corners Per Game by Team (United States and England)

##### User Estimates #####
USA_CKperG = 36/5
ENG_CKperG = 31/5

print("Expected CORNER KICKS to be made by USA in the match is %s." % round(USA_CKperG,3))
print("Expected CORNER KICKS to be made by England in the match is %s." % round(ENG_CKperG,3))

Expected CORNER KICKS to be made by USA in the match is 7.2.
Expected CORNER KICKS to be made by England in the match is 6.2.

## Inputs Defined in the Problem
half_ = 1
difference = 0

Method to Solve

Estimate mu_USA (expected arrival rate of CORNER KICKS per half for the USA)
Estimate mu_ENG (expected arrival rate of CORNER KICKS per half for the England)
Use mu_USA and mu_ENG in the Skellam Distribution (the difference between 2 independant Poisson processes) to compute the probability of the USA taking more CORNER KICKS in the 2nd half.

mu_USA = USA_CKperG / 2
mu_ENG = ENG_CKperG / 2
print("mu_USA = the total expected CORNER KICKS taken by the USA in the 2nd half is ~%s" % round(mu_USA,3))
print("mu_ENG = the total expected CORNER KICKS taken by the USA in the 2nd half is ~%s" % round(mu_ENG,3))

mu_USA = the total expected CORNER KICKS taken by the USA in the 2nd half is ~3.6
mu_ENG = the total expected CORNER KICKS taken by the USA in the 2nd half is ~3.1

from scipy.stats import skellam

p = skellam.cdf(difference,mu_ENG,mu_USA)
print("Recall the cdf (cumulative distribution fuction) is P[X<=x] where X is the 'difference' in this example")

Recall the cdf (cumulative distribution fuction) is P[X<=x] where X is the ‘difference’ in this example

Solution

print("The probability of the UNITED STATES taking more CORNER KICKS in the 2nd half is ~%s" % round(1-p,2))

The probability of the UNITED STATES taking more CORNER KICKS in the 2nd half is ~0.35

Posted on 7/2/2019