Women’s World Cup 2019 (Group B): How many GOALS will be SCORED in the 12 pm ET matches? (2 matches)

5 Goals or Fewer
6 Goals or More

Inputs To Solve

Over / Under for each match (CHN/ESP and RSA/GER)

##### User Estimates #####
CHN_ESP_o_u = 2
RSA_GER_o_u = 3.5

total_expected_goals = CHN_ESP_o_u + RSA_GER_o_u

print("Use %s as total expected GOALS for the 12pm ET matches (2 matches)."  % total_expected_goals)

Use 5.5 as total expected GOALS for the 12pm ET matches (2 matches).     

## Inputs Defined in the Problem
total_goals = 5

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Method to Solve

Estimate lambda (rate of goals per 2 matches) and use the Poisson Distribution to compute the probabilty of 5 GOALS or Fewer being scored in the 12pm ET matches:

lambda_ = total_expected_goals

print("lambda ~ %s" % (round(lambda_,2)))

lambda ~ 5.5     

from scipy.stats import poisson

p_under_5 = poisson.cdf(total_goals,lambda_)

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Solution

print("The probabilty that 5 GOALS or Fewer will be scored in the 12pm ET matches (2 matches) is ~%s" % round(p_under_5,3))

The probabilty that 5 GOALS or Fewer will be scored in the 12pm ET matches (2 matches) is ~0.529

Posted on 6/17/2019