UEFA Europa League: Which side will SCORE MORE GOALS in the 1 pm ET Europa matches? (10 matches)

Inputs To Solve

##### User Estimates #####

# assume the expected goals for an even match is the over / under for the mathc divided by 2
# weight the expected goals for a match with a clear favorite by the odds of the favorite winning

home_odds = [230/330,230/330,100/200,100/200,100/200,100/200,100/200,1-(150/250),1-(150/250),100/200]

over_under_evenmatch = 2.75

## Inputs Defined in the Problem

difference  = 0

Method to Solve

[1] Estimate mu_home, the expected number of arrivals (goals) for the home teams
[2] Estimate mu_away, the expected number of arrivals (goals) for the away teams
[3] Use mu_away and mu_home in the Skellam Distribution (the difference between 2 independent Poisson processes) to compute the probability that the difference between the away goals and home goals is greater than or equal to zero (p_away).

## [1]

mu_home = 0

for i in home_odds:
    mu_home += over_under_evenmatch*i
    
print("mu_home = the total expected GOALS scored by the home teams is %s" % round(mu_home,3))

mu_home = the total expected GOALS scored by the home teams is 14.283

## [2]

mu_away = 0

for i in home_odds:
    mu_away += over_under_evenmatch*(1-i)
    
print("mu_away = the total expected GOALS scored by the away teams is %s" % round(mu_away,3))

mu_away = the total expected GOALS scored by the away teams is 13.217

## [3]

from scipy.stats import skellam

p_away = skellam.cdf(difference,mu_away,mu_home)
print("Recall the cdf (cumulative distribution function) is P[X<=x] where X is the 'difference' in this example")

Recall the cdf (cumulative distribution function) is P[X<=x] where X is the 'difference' in this example

Solution

print("The probability the AWAY TEAMS SCORE more of the same number of GOALS as the HOME TEAMS is ~%s" % round(p_away,3))

The probability the AWAY TEAMS SCORE more of the same number of GOALS as the HOME TEAMS is ~0.618

Info

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import sys
print(sys.version)

3.6.5 |Anaconda, Inc.| (default, Mar 29 2018, 13:32:41) [MSC v.1900 64 bit (AMD64)]

Posted on 8/15/2019