U.S. Open - 1st Rd: Will ANY of these PLAYERS (Olesen, Grillo, Fox, N. Taylor) PAR EACH of the FIRST 3 HOLES?

Yes: At least 1 pars all three holes
No: None par all three holes

Inputs To Solve

##### User Estimates #####
p_par_1 = 150/(1+32+150+45+2+1)
p_par_2 = 93/(15+119+93+4)
p_par_3 = 163/(31+163+29+6+2)

print("The probability of a PLAYER scoring PAR on hole 1 is ~%s" % round(p_par_1,3))
print("The probability of a PLAYER scoring PAR on hole 2 is ~%s" % round(p_par_2,3))
print("The probability of a PLAYER scoring PAR on hole 3 is ~%s" % round(p_par_3,3))

The probability of a PLAYER scoring PAR on hole 1 is ~0.649
The probability of a PLAYER scoring PAR on hole 2 is ~0.403
The probability of a PLAYER scoring PAR on hole 3 is ~0.706

## Inputs Defined in the Problem
players = 4

Method to Solve

The probability that at least 1 PLAYER PARS all three holes is 1 - the probability that no PLAYER PARS all three holes.
The probability that no PLAYER PARS all three holes is 1 - the probability that all PLAYERs do not PAR all three holes.
The probability that all PLAYERs do not PAR all three holes is (1 - the probability of a PLAYER scoring PAR on all three holes)^(# of players).

one_player_par_all3 = p_par_1*p_par_2*p_par_3
one_player_notpar_all3 = 1 - one_player_par_all3
no_players_par_all3 = one_player_notpar_all3**players

Solution

print("The proability that at least 1 pars all three holes is ~%s" % round(1-no_players_par_all3,2))
print("The proability that none par all three holes is ~%s" % round(no_players_par_all3,2))

The proability that at least 1 pars all three holes is ~0.56
The proability that none par all three holes is ~0.44

Posted on 6/13/2019