The Open Championship: Will EACH of these players (Fowler, Kisner, Matsuyama) PAR EITHER Hole 14 or 15?

2:00 PM
Yes: All 3 players par at least 1 of those holes
No: At least 1 player doesn’t par 1 of those holes

Inputs To Solve

##### User Estimates #####
p_par_14 = 129/(20+129+55+4+2)
p_par_15 = 121/(32+121+48+5+1)

print("The probability of a PLAYER scoring PAR on hole 14 is ~%s" % round(p_par_14,3))
print("The probability of a PLAYER scoring PAR on hole 15 is ~%s" % round(p_par_15,3))

The probability of a PLAYER scoring PAR on hole 14 is ~0.614
The probability of a PLAYER scoring PAR on hole 15 is ~0.585

Method to Solve

The probability that a single golfer will par either hole is 1 - the probability that the golfer does not par either
The probability that all three golfers par either is the probability that a single golfer pars either ^ 3

p_par_either = 1 - ((1-p_par_14)*(1-p_par_15))
print("The probability that an individual golfer records a par on either hole is %s" % round(p_par_either,3))

The probability that an individual golfer records a par on either hole is 0.84

Solution

print("The probability that Fowler, Kisner, Matsuyama each PAR EITHER Hole 14 or 15 is ~%s" % round(p_par_either**3,3))

The probability that Fowler, Kisner, Matsuyama each PAR EITHER Hole 14 or 15 is ~0.592

Posted on 7/19/2019