The Open Championship 2019 - 1st Rd: Will Brooks Koepka record a BIRDIE during Holes 16-17?

12:04 PM
Yes: Koepka records birdie during Holes 16-17
No: Koepka doesn’t record birdie during Holes 16-17

Inputs To Solve

##### User Estimates #####
p_bird_16 = 1/(1+33+14)
p_bird_17 = 4/(4+27+13+2)

print("The probability of a PLAYER scoring BIRDE on hole 16 is ~%s" % round(p_bird_16,3))
print("The probability of a PLAYER scoring BIRDE on hole 17 is ~%s" % round(p_bird_17,3))

The probability of a PLAYER scoring BIRDE on hole 16 is ~0.021
The probability of a PLAYER scoring BIRDE on hole 17 is ~0.087

## Inputs Defined in the Problem
num_birdies = 0

Method to Solve

The probability that Brooks Koepka records a birdie is 1 - the probability that he does not score a birdie on either hole.
The probability that Brooks Koepka does not record a birdie on either hole is 1 - the probability of a birdie on hole 16 multiplied by 1 - the probability of a birdie on hole 17.

p_no_birdies = (1-p_bird_16)*(1-p_bird_17)
print("The probability that Brooks Koepka does not record a birdie on either hole is %s" % round(p_no_birdies,3))

The probability that Brooks Koepka does not record a birdie on either hole is 0.894

Solution

print("The probability that Brooks Koepka records a birdie on hole 16 or 17 is ~%s" % round(1-p_no_birdies,3))

The probability that Brooks Koepka records a birdie on hole 16 or 17 is ~0.106

Posted on 7/18/2019