Spanish Primera Division (Atletico Madrid @ Barcelona): Will EITHER TEAM SCORE 2+ GOALS in the 2nd Half?

5:02 PM
Yes: At least 1 team scores 2+ goals in 2H
No: Neither team scores 2+ goals in 2H

Inputs to Solve

Expected Goals for Each Team for the 2nd Half

##### User Estimates #####

Am_2nd_OU = 1
Barc_2nd_OU = 1.5

# over / unders

## Inputs Defined in the Problem

GOALS = 2
time = 0.5

Method to Solve

[1] Estimate lambda_AM (l_am), arrival rate of GOALS per half for Atletico Madrid and lamda_Barc (l_barc), arrival rate of GOALS per half for Barcelona.
[2] Use the Poisson Distribution to compute the probability of less than 2 GOALS SCORED in the 2nd Half for Atletico Madrid (p_2_am) and Barcelona (p_2_barc)
[3] 1 - (p_2_am * p_2_barc) is the probability that either team scores 2+ GOALS in the 2nd HALF (p_either).

## [1]

l_am = float(Am_2nd_OU * time)
print("The total expected GOALS in a half for Atletico Madrid is %s" % round((l_am),3))

l_barc = float(Barc_2nd_OU * time)
print("The total expected GOALS in a half for Barcelona is %s" % round((l_barc),3))

The total expected GOALS in a half for Atletico Madrid is 0.5
The total expected GOALS in a half for Barcelona is 0.75

## [2]

from scipy.stats import poisson

p_2_am = poisson.cdf(GOALS-1,l_am)
print("The probability Atletico Madrid scores less than 2 GOALS in the 2nd Half is %s" % round((p_2_am),3))

p_2_barc = poisson.cdf(GOALS-1,l_barc)
print("The probability Barcelona scores less than 2 GOALS in the 2nd Half is %s" % round((p_2_barc),3))

The probability Atletico Madrid scores less than 2 GOALS in the 2nd Half is 0.91
The probability Barcelona scores less than 2 GOALS in the 2nd Half is 0.827

## [3]

p_either = 1 - (p_2_am*p_2_barc)

Solution

print("The probability either team Scores 2 or MORE GOALS in the 2nd Half is %s" % round(p_either,3))

The probability either team Scores 2 or MORE GOALS in the 2nd Half is 0.248

Info

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Posted on 6/30/2020