PGA RBC Heritage - 2nd Rd: Will M. Hubbard AND A. Schenk record the SAME SCORE on the Par 4 18th?

6:49PM
Yes: Bothttp://fantasy.espn.com/streak/en/createOrUpdateEntry?matchup=m85570o82297h record same score
No: Both record a different score

Inputs to Solve

2020 Course Stats
(data used up to start of 2nd round)

##### User Estimates #####

hole_18 = {'3':14,
           '4':108,
           '5':27,
           '6':2}

## Inputs Defined in the Problem

golfers = ['Hubbard','Schenk']

Method to Solve

[1] Enumerate all the possible combinations of scores for 2 golfers on the 18th hole (2^4 combinations).
[2] The probability that at the 2 golfer’s scores are the same (p_same) is the sum of all the probabilities where the scores are equal.

## [1]

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd

t=sum(hole_18.values())
for i in hole_18:
    hole_18[i] = hole_18[i]/t


y = np.array([(a,b) for a in hole_18.keys() for b in hole_18.keys()])
scores = pd.DataFrame(y)
scores.columns = golfers
scores = scores.apply(pd.to_numeric)
scores['same'] = scores['Hubbard']==scores['Schenk']

z = np.array([(a,b) for a in hole_18.values() for b in hole_18.values()])
probability = pd.DataFrame(z)
probability.columns = golfers
probability['p'] = probability.product(axis=1)

scores

	Hubbard	Schenk	same
0	3	3	True
1	3	4	False
2	3	5	False
3	3	6	False
4	4	3	False
5	4	4	True
6	4	5	False
7	4	6	False
8	5	3	False
9	5	4	False
10	5	5	True
11	5	6	False
12	6	3	False
13	6	4	False
14	6	5	False
15	6	6	True

probability

	Hubbard	Schenk	p
0	0.092715	0.092715	0.008596
1	0.092715	0.715232	0.066313
2	0.092715	0.178808	0.016578
3	0.092715	0.013245	0.001228
4	0.715232	0.092715	0.066313
5	0.715232	0.715232	0.511557
6	0.715232	0.178808	0.127889
7	0.715232	0.013245	0.009473
8	0.178808	0.092715	0.016578
9	0.178808	0.715232	0.127889
10	0.178808	0.178808	0.031972
11	0.178808	0.013245	0.002368
12	0.013245	0.092715	0.001228
13	0.013245	0.715232	0.009473
14	0.013245	0.178808	0.002368
15	0.013245	0.013245	0.000175

## [2]

p_same = probability['p'][scores['same']==True].sum()

Solution

print("The probability that M. Hubbard AND A. Schenk record the SAME SCORE on the Par 4 18th is ~ %s" % round(p_same,3))

The probability that M. Hubbard AND A. Schenk record the SAME SCORE on the Par 4 18th is ~ 0.552

Info

download markdown file
email: krellabsinc@gmail.com
twitter: @KRELLabs

import sys
print(sys.version)

3.6.5 (v3.6.5:f59c0932b4, Mar 28 2018, 16:07:46) [MSC v.1900 32 bit (Intel)]

Posted on 6/19/2020