NCF (Duke v. #2 Alabama - Atlanta, GA): How many TOUCHDOWN PASSES will Tua Tagovailoa (ALA) record?

Inputs Needed to Solve

TDs per Game 2018 Tagovailoa

##### User Estimates #####
TDperGame = float(43)/15

print("The total expected TDs per Game for Tua Tagovailoa is %s" % round(TDperGame,3))

The total expected TDs per Game for Tua Tagovailoa is 2.867

## Inputs Defined in the Problem

TDs = 3

Method to Solve

[1] Estimate lambda_td as the expected TDs per Game
[2] Use the Poisson Distribution to compute the probability of 3 or Fewer TOUCHDOWN PASSES COMPLETED (p_3orless) in the game by Tagovailoa.

lambda_td = TDperGame
print("lambda_td = the total expected TD Passes for the Game")
print("lambda_td ~ %s" % (round(lambda_td,3)))

lambda_td = the total expected TD Passes for the Game
lambda_td ~ 2.867

from scipy.stats import poisson

print("The probability of k events occurring in a Poisson interval = e^(-lambda) * (lambda^k)/k!")
print("where k = range(0,3)")

p_3orless = poisson.cdf(TDs,lambda_td)

The probability of k events occurring in a Poisson interval = e^(-lambda) * (lambda^k)/k!
where k = range(0,3)

Solution

print("The probability Tua Tagovailoa PASSES 3 TOUCHDOWNS or FEWER is %s" % (round(p_3orless,3)))

The probability Tua Tagovailoa PASSES 3 TOUCHDOWNS or FEWER is 0.677

Info

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import sys
print(sys.version)

2.7.12 |Anaconda 4.2.0 (64-bit)| (default, Jun 29 2016, 11:07:13) [MSC v.1500 64 bit (AMD64)]

Posted on 8/31/2019