NBA Finals (Raptors @ Warriors): Will BOTH K. Leonard (TOR) AND S. Curry (GS) SCORE 12+ POINTS in the 1st Half?
9:10 PM
Yes: Both Score 12+ Pts in 1st Half
No: At least 1 doesn’t Score 12+ Pts in 1st Half
Inputs To Solve
POINTS per Game by Players
Kawhi Leonard and Steph Curry
##### User Estimates #####
KL_PperG = 30.9
SC_PperG = 27.4## Inputs Defined in the Problem
quarters = 2
points = 12Method to Solve
Estimate lambdas (expected points per player per half) and Poisson Distribution to estimate the probabilty of either player scoring 12+ points in any 2 quarters.
The probability of both players scoring 12+ points in any 2 quarters = the probability of Khawi Leonard scoring 12+ points in any 2 quarters * the probability of Steph Curry scoring 12+ points in any 2 quarters.
lambda_kl = KL_PperG * quarters / 4
lambda_sc = SC_PperG * quarters / 4
print("lambda_kl, the expected points to be scored by the Khawi Leonard per %s quarters = %s" % (quarters,lambda_kl))
print("lambda_sc, the expected points to be scored by the Steph Curry per %s quarters = %s" % (quarters,lambda_sc))lambda_kl, the expected points to be scored by the Khawi Leonard per 2 quarters = 15.45
lambda_sc, the expected points to be scored by the Steph Curry per 2 quarters = 13.7
from scipy.stats import poisson
p_kl_12 = 1-poisson.cdf(points-1,lambda_kl)
p_sc_12 = 1-poisson.cdf(points-1,lambda_sc)
print("The probabilty of Khawi Leonard scoring 12+ points in any half is %s" % round(p_kl_12,2))
print("The probabilty of Steph Curry scoring 12+ points in any half is %s" % round(p_sc_12,2))The probabilty of Khawi Leonard scoring 12+ points in any half is 0.84
The probabilty of Steph Curry scoring 12+ points in any half is 0.71
Solution
print("The probabilty of Khawi Leonard and Steph Curry scoring 12+ points in any half is %s*%s or %s" % (round(p_kl_12,2),round(p_sc_12,2),round(p_kl_12*p_sc_12,2)))The probabilty of Khawi Leonard and Steph Curry scoring 12+ points in any half is 0.84*0.71 or 0.6
Posted on 6/5/2019