MLB (Tigers @ Astros): Which TEAM will SCORE FIRST?

8:10PM
Tigers Score First
Astros Score First

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Inputs To Solve

Distribution of Runs Scored per Inning MLB

##### User Estimates #####

p_NoRuns = .72
# the probabilty an mlb team scores zero runs in an inning

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Method to Solve

• [1] Use the Monte Carlo Method and simulate 9999 games between the Tigers and the Astros, keeping track of which team scores first.
• [2] The ratio of times the Tigers score first is an estimate of the probability the Tigers will score first (p_TIGERS) in the game.

## [1]

import numpy as np

iterations = 9999
_1st_count = 0

print("The team that scores first in the first 10 simulations are:")
print('')

for i in range(iterations):
    score = False

    while not score:
        flip = np.random.choice(['Runs','None'],1,p=[1-p_NoRuns,p_NoRuns])
        #print(flip)
        if flip == 'Runs':
            score = True
            team = 'Tigers'
        else:
            flip = np.random.choice(['Runs','None'],1,p=[1-p_NoRuns,p_NoRuns])
            if flip == 'Runs':
                score = True
                team = 'Astros'
        
    if team == 'Tigers':
        _1st_count += 1
        
    if i < 10:
        print(team)

The team that scores first in the first 10 simulations are:

Tigers
Astros
Tigers
Tigers
Astros
Astros
Tigers
Tigers
Astros
Tigers

## [2]

p_TIGERS = _1st_count/iterations

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Solution

print("The probability the TIGERS will SCORE FIRST is ~%s" % round(p_TIGERS,3))

The probability the TIGERS will SCORE FIRST is ~0.583

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Info

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import sys
print(sys.version)

3.6.5 |Anaconda, Inc.| (default, Mar 29 2018, 13:32:41) [MSC v.1900 64 bit (AMD64)]

Posted on 8/20/2019