MLB (Rockies @ Diamondbacks): Will a BATTER REACH BASE for the Rockies in the 1st Inning?

Yes: Batter reaches base for Rockies in 1st Inning
No: No batter reaches base for Rockies in 1st Inning

Inputs To Solve

##### User Estimates #####
Blackmon_OBP = .361
Story_OBP = .377
Dahl_OBP = .355

Method to Solve

The probability that at least one batter reaches base is 1 - the probability that no one reaches base.

black_no = 1 - Blackmon_OBP
story_no = 1 - Story_OBP
dahl_no = 1 - Dahl_OBP

print("The probability that Blackmon does not reach base is %s" % black_no)
print("The probability that Story does not reach base is %s" % story_no)
print("The probability that Dahl does not reach base is %s" % dahl_no)

none_ = black_no*story_no*dahl_no
print('')
print("The probability that no one reaches base is %s" % round(none_,3))

The probability that Blackmon does not reach base is 0.639
The probability that Story does not reach base is 0.623
The probability that Dahl does not reach base is 0.645

The probability that no one reaches base is 0.257

Solution

print("The probabilty that a BATTER REACHES BASE for the ROCKIES in the 1st INNING is %s" % round((1-none_),3))

The probabilty that a BATTER REACHES BASE for the ROCKIES in the 1st INNING is 0.743

Posted on 6/19/2019