MLB (Phillies @ Braves): What will be the FIRST HIT of the 3rd Inning?
7:45PM ESPN
Single
Any Other Hit or No hits in 3rd Inning
Inputs Needed to Solve
MLB TEAM BATTING AVG
MLB Team Hit breakdown
##### User Estimates #####
mlb_ba = 0.265
hit_is_single = float(150+13+118)/740## Inputs Defined in the Problem
period_of_innings = 1
Single = 1Method to Solve
- Estimate the probability of no hits in the top of the 3rd Inning and the bottom of the 3rd Inning
- Compute the conditional probability there is a hit and it is a single
print("The probability there are no hits in any inning is 1 - the probability that the first three batters get out in each half inning")
print("The probability there are no hits in any inning is 1 - (mlb_ba)^6")
print("1 -(%s)^3" % mlb_ba)
print('')
p = (1-mlb_ba)**6
print("The probability there are no hits in the 3rd Inning is %s" %round(p,3))The probability there are no hits in any inning is 1 - the probability that the first three batters get out in each half inning
The probability there are no hits in any inning is 1 - (mlb_ba)^6
1 -(0.265)^3
The probability there are no hits in the 3rd Inning is 0.158
single = (1 - p)*hit_is_singleSolution
print("The probability that the first hit of the 3rd Inning is a Single is %s" % round(single,3))The probability that the first hit of the 3rd Inning is a Single is 0.32
Posted on 7/4/2019