MLB (Giants @ Cubs): Which TEAM will record MORE HITS during Innings 1-3?

8:05PM
Giants: More Hits Innings 1-3 or Tie
@ Cubs: More Hits Innings 1-3

Inputs To Solve

Hits per Game by Team MLB 2019

##### User Estimates #####

SF_HperG = 8.29
ChC_HperG = 8.5

## Inputs Defined in the Problem
period_of_innings = 3
difference = 0

Method to Solve

[1] Estimate mu_sf - expected number of HITS per 3 Innings for the Giants
[2] Estimate mu_chc - expected number of HITS per 3 Innings for the Cubs
[3] Use mu_sf and mu_chc as parameters in the Skellam Distribution (the difference between 2 independent Poisson processes) to compute the probability of the Cubs recording more HITS than the Giants during Innings 1-3 (p_chc).

## [1]

mu_sf = SF_HperG * period_of_innings / 9

print("mu_sf = expected number of HITS per 3 Innings for the Giants ~%s" % round(mu_sf,3))

mu_sf = expected number of HITS per 3 Innings for the Giants ~2.763

## [2]

mu_chc = ChC_HperG * period_of_innings / 9

print("mu_chc = expected number of HITS per 3 Innings for the Cubs ~%s" % round(mu_chc,3))

mu_chc = expected number of HITS per 3 Innings for the Cubs ~2.833

## [3]

from scipy.stats import skellam

p_chc = 1-skellam.cdf(difference,mu_sf,mu_chc)

print("Recall the cdf (cumulative distribution function) is P[X<=x] where x is the 'difference' in this example")

Recall the cdf (cumulative distribution function) is P[X<=x] where x is the 'difference' in this example

Solution

print("The probability the Cubs record more HITS than the Giants during Innings 1-3 is ~%s" % round(p_chc,3))

The probability the Cubs record more HITS than the Giants during Innings 1-3 is ~0.402

Info

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import sys
print(sys.version)

3.6.5 |Anaconda, Inc.| (default, Mar 29 2018, 13:32:41) [MSC v.1900 64 bit (AMD64)]

Posted on 8/21/2019