International Champions Cup (Benfica v. Guadalajara): When will the FIRST GOAL of the 1st HALF be SCORED?

4:00 PM
24th Minute or Earlier
25th Minute or Later OR No Goal Scored in 1st Half

Inputs Needed to Solve

##### User Estimates #####
no_goals_half = 1/2.2

print("The probability there are no goals in the first half is %s" % round(no_goals_half,3))

The probability there are no goals in the first half is 0.455

## Inputs Defined in the Problem
goals = 0

Method to Solve

The probability of a goal being scored in the first 24 minutes compared to after is the ratio of time in the first interval compared to the second interval (based on Poisson assumptions)
The probability of a goal being scored after the 25th minute or No Goal is 1-no_goals_half times 20/45

Solution

print("The probability that the first goal is scored after the 25th Minute or No Goal is scored in the First Half is ~%s" % round(float(20)/45*no_goals_half,3))

The probability that the first goal is scored after the 25th Minute or No Goal is scored in the First Half is ~0.202

Posted on 7/20/2019