College World Series (Florida State v. Michigan): Will BOTH TEAMS SCORE a RUN during Innings 4-6??
Yes: Both teams score during Innings 4-6
No: At least 1 team doesn’t score during Innings 4-6
Inputs To Solve
RUNs per Game by Team (Florida State and Michigan)
##### User Estimates #####
FlST_RperGame = (385)/57
Mich_RperGame = (404)/59
print("FlSt RUNS per Game is %s" % round(FlST_RperGame,2))
print("Mich RUNS per Game is %s" % round(Mich_RperGame,2))FlSt RUNS per Game is 6.75
Mich RUNS per Game is 6.85
## Inputs Defined in the Problem
period_of_innings = 3
Runs = 0Method to Solve
- Estimate lambdas (expected RUNs per 3 Inning period) and Poisson Distribution to estimate the probabilty of either team scoring 0 RUNS.
- The probability of both teams scoring during Innings 4-6 is the probability that Fl St scores 1+ runs in Innings 4-6 multiplied by the probability that Mich scores 1+ runs in Innings 4-6
lambda_fl = FlST_RperGame * period_of_innings / 9
lambda_mi = Mich_RperGame * period_of_innings / 9
print("lambda_fl, the expected RUNS to be scored by Fl St per %s innings = %s" % (period_of_innings,round(lambda_fl,2)))
print("lambda_mi, the expected RUNS to be scored by Mich per %s innings = %s" % (period_of_innings,round(lambda_mi,2)))lambda_fl, the expected RUNS to be scored by Fl St per 3 innings = 2.25
lambda_mi, the expected RUNS to be scored by Mich per 3 innings = 2.28
from scipy.stats import poisson
p_fl_0 = 1-poisson.cdf(Runs,lambda_fl)
p_mi_0 = 1-poisson.cdf(Runs,lambda_mi)
print("The probabilty that Fl St scores 1+ runs in Innings 4-6 is %s" % round(p_fl_0,3))
print("The probabilty that Mich scores 1+ runs in Innings 4-6 is %s" % round(p_mi_0,3)) The probabilty that Fl St scores 1+ runs in Innings 4-6 is 0.895
The probabilty that Mich scores 1+ runs in Innings 4-6 is 0.898
p_both_0 = p_fl_0 * p_mi_0Solution
print("The probabilty that both teams score 1+ runs in Innings 4-6 is %s" % round(p_both_0,3)) The probabilty that both teams score 1+ runs in Innings 4-6 is 0.803
Posted on 6/17/2019