ATP Rogers Cup (#8 D. Medvedev v. #2 D. Thiem): Will there be a BREAK POINT in ANY of the FIRST FOUR GAMES?

12:40PM
Yes: Break point in first four games
No: No break point in first four game

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Inputs To Solve

Probability of a Game going to BREAK POINT

##### User Estimates #####

p_BREAK = .15

## Inputs Defined in the Problem

games = 4

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Method to Solve

• [1] Observe the probability of a game going to BREAK POINT (p_BREAK)
• [2] The probability at least one GAME reaches BREAK POINT (p_BREAKPOINT) is 1 - the probability all games do not reach BREAK POINT

## [1]

p_BREAK

    0.15

## [2]

p_BREAKPOINT = 1 - ((1 - p_BREAK)**(games))

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Solution

print("The probability there will be a BREAK POINT in ANY of the FIRST FOUR GAMES is ~%s" % round(p_BREAKPOINT,3))

    The probability there will be a BREAK POINT in ANY of the FIRST FOUR GAMES is ~0.478

Posted on 8/9/2019