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ATP Rogers Cup - 1st Rd (Guido Pella v. #15 David Goffin): Will a TIEBREAK be PLAYED in the match?


2:00PM
Yes: At least 1 tiebreak played
No:  No tiebreak played

Inputs To Solve

Odds of Match going 2 or 3 Sets
Odds of any Set reaching TIEBREAK

##### User Estimates #####
goffin_wins_2_0 = 100/200
pella_wins_2_0 = 100/(435+100)

odds_2SETS = goffin_wins_2_0 + pella_wins_2_0

print("The probability that Goffin wins in 2 Sets is %s." % round(goffin_wins_2_0,3))
print("The probability that Pella wins in 2 Sets is %s." % round(pella_wins_2_0,3))
print('')
print("The probability the match goes 2 Sets is %s." % round(odds_2SETS,3))
print("Therefore the probability the match goes 3 Sets (1 - the probability the match goes 2 Sets) is %s." % round(1-odds_2SETS,3))

odds_of_TIEBREAK = .16

The probability that Goffin wins in 2 Sets is 0.5.
The probability that Pella wins in 2 Sets is 0.187.

The probability the match goes 2 Sets is 0.687.
Therefore the probability the match goes 3 Sets (1 - the probability the match goes 2 Sets) is 0.313.    

## Inputs Defined in the Problem
NUM_OF_TIEBREAK = 0

Method to Solve

sets = 2
p_0_tb_2Sets = (1-odds_of_TIEBREAK)**sets

print("The probability there are no TIEBREAKS in a %s Set Match is %s" % (sets,round(p_0_tb_2Sets,3)))

The probability there are no TIEBREAKS in a 2 Set Match is 0.706    

sets = 3
p_0_tb_3Sets = (1-odds_of_TIEBREAK)**sets

print("The probability there are no TIEBREAKS in a %s Set Match is %s" % (sets,round(p_0_tb_3Sets,3)))

The probability there are no TIEBREAKS in a 3 Set Match is 0.593    

p_no_tiebreaks = (odds_2SETS*p_0_tb_2Sets) + ((1-odds_2SETS)*p_0_tb_3Sets)

Solution

print("The probability there are No TIEBREAKS played in the Match ~%s" % round(p_no_tiebreaks,3))

The probability there are No TIEBREAKS played in the Match ~0.67

Posted on 8/6/2019





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