2019 MLB All-Star Game: Will Christian Yelich (NL) OR Mike Trout (AL) record a HIT in their FIRST PLATE APPEARANCE?

7:40 PM
Yes: At least 1 records a Hit in first PA
No: Neither records a Hit in first PA

Inputs To Solve

Hits per Plate Appearance by Hittter

##### User Estimates #####
CY_HperPA_2019 = 100/365
MT_HperPA_2019 = 91/391

print("Christian Yelich's 2019 Hits per Plate Appearance is %s" % round(CY_HperPA_2019,3))
print("Mike Trout's 2019 Hits per Plate Appearance is %s" % round(CY_HperPA_2019,3))

Christian Yelich’s 2019 Hits per Plate Appearance is 0.274
Mike Trout’s 2019 Hits per Plate Appearance is 0.274

Method to Solve

The probability that at least 1 records a HIT in their FIRST PLATE APPEARANCE is 1 - the probability that neither get a hit in their FIRST PLATE APPEARANCE.
The probability that neither gets a hit in their FIRST PLATE APPEARANCE is 1 - the probability CY does not get a hit multiplied by 1 - the probability that MT does not get a hit.

p_neither = (1-CY_HperPA_2019)*(1-MT_HperPA_2019)
p_one_or_both = 1 - p_neither

Solution

print("The probability that Christian Yelich OR Mike Trout record a HIT in their FIRST PLATE APPEARANCE is ~%s" % round(p_one_or_both,3))

The probability that Christian Yelich OR Mike Trout record a HIT in their FIRST PLATE APPEARANCE is ~0.443

Posted on 7/9/2019